End-One Child Policy China

Molly Zhang, a 31-year-old account manager in the lighting industry, only? Having a second son. Now he must pay the fine is likely to total 30,000 yuan ($ 4.760), almost equal to his annual salary, for violating the one-child policy of China. "Even for those white-collar workers on average in Dongguan, is a lot of money. But I do not want to have an only child, "says Zhang, adding that fines need to get his household registration documents, without education and work impossible.Last publication in 2010 China census , which revealed more perceived decline in childbirth than previously thought, galvanized 20 or more top China demographics, sociologists, and economists advocating ending the one-child policy. "It is time to think about removing the policy decided 30 years ago, China situation has changed so much," said Gu Baochang, demographer at Renmin University of China in Beijing and one of the informal leaders team, which has twice petitioned the supreme leader of China urging them to reform or end the latest salvo policy.The April 16 publication of a book by James Liang, chairman of online tourism company Ctrip.com (CTRP), China version of Expedia (expe). Title: Too many people in China? Three publishers refused to print the book, citing the sensitivity of the subject, said Liang. His thesis is that the demographic changes brought about by the one-child policy is challenging objective Beijing moves from the factory to the world to become a more innovative economy. A rapidly aging workforce will stifle creativity within the company, argued Liang, who saw the experience of companies in over 60 countries for the book and received his doctorate in economics at Stanford University. "In almost all countries, developed and developing, to see that the older age of the labor force, the lower the overall Entrepreneurship," said Liang, citing Japan as a classic example.Since was put in place in 1979, one of China's children have a strong rule of official support. National Population and Family Planning Commission, which serves about half a million people, said the effort has avoided a population surge that China will add 400 million to 1,34 billion population and straining scarce resources in the country. The claim is largely supported by leaders of China, which recently confirmed on April 10 their intention to keep a low birth rate. "The mindset of many Chinese policy makers, including a large part of society, yet again it was 30-40 years ago," said Wang Feng, a senior fellow and director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. "Chinese belief to have many children, and if the government made it extraordinary deal, China was destroyed by the explosion." It's thoughts after the date during Chinese Cultural Revolution ended in 1976 , when the economy is experiencing a huge shortage and rationing public. Demographic results of the one-child policy is dramatic. In 1966, the average Chinese family with six children. The birth rate has fallen to 1.5 children today, which means that the possibility of China's population will peak at 1.4 billion people by 2030. Few in the U.S. average about two children.To date, China is enjoying what economists call a "demographic dividend," with a growing labor force contributes about 0.9 percent of annual economic growth, according the World Bank estimates. Dividend will be lost when the peak of the working age population to 1 billion, and then begin to shrink, in 2013. While China currently has about 120 million people aged 20-24, which is expected to drop more than 20 percent in the next decade, according to the UN Department of Economic and Social shortages Affairs.Labor appeared earliest in the Pearl River Delta, in large part due to factory export factories rely on workers under the age of 25. In the coming years the labor force will grow older. "Problem implements the older workers, who have mushroomed in size, and yet have much less human capital [such as higher education and good health in general] to offer an employer," : Judith says sill, a leading Chinese demographer former director of global economic demographics tagapagpananaliksik Conference Board. While the U.S. and Europe took about 100 years to become an aging society, China has taken less than 40 years. "For the first time we see the country is not getting old before they become rich," said Philip O'Keefe, coordinator of the sector of human development at the World Bank in Beijing.So now, Chinese officials taken only small steps to ease policy. Chinese ethnic minorities that have long been allowed to have many children. The first peasant girls are allowed to have a second baby. And now most provinces allows the couple themselves from single-child families to have a second child. However, about two-thirds of the Chinese fall under the restrictions, estimated Renmin University Gu. Demographic sill says: "You try to go to a children's plan, and suddenly the strength to come and fine you or put so much pressure on you to have an abortion." Planning commission has decided to discontinue the use of the slogans of the most threatened purpose to scare the people into compliance. Other People's Daily reported in February that China was not broadcast vowed that "we would rather scrape your uterus rather than allow you to have a second child?" But it replace the soft messages, including, "The parents of a child's family will get benefits after age 60 years" Right now!, demographics such as Gu and Wang admitted that China will never reverse the trend of aging. That is because the decline in fertility is now also due to reduced fertility is often seen their country become better and better studied. However, they argue that maintaining the one-child policy only exacerbated the problem. "There was a serious under-estimation of changes, deep tectonic China population is now happening," says Wang. "China is in demographic decline. And instead of the brake, the current government continues to step on the gas pedal "Bottom line:. As China top working age population, the plan is to switch from regular work in a factory for innovation is threatened by the aging workforce.